From February to mid-March, oil prices receded rapidly.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
Among the Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, HCL Technologies, Nestle, Maruti, JSW Steel, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel were the gainers.
Retail inflation declined to 6.83 per cent in August after touching a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, mainly due to softening prices of vegetables, but still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. The overall inflation in the food basket stood at 9.94 per cent in August as against 11.51 per cent in July, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 7 per cent in August 2022.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Nestle were the major laggards. Maruti, Power Grid, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, NTPC, HDFC Bank, ITC and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas investment arm of India's largest oil producer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, has bought UK-based Imperial Energy, which has oil producing assets in Russia, at a valuation of $3 per barrel of oil reserves
State-owned explorer's foreign arm wants to invest in exploration & production in the country, which has world's fourth-largest reserves.
British oil firm Cairn Energy Plc on Tuesday announced a second significant oil discovery in its Rajasthan block, where it had in January found India's largest field in more than two decades.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Indian economy is gathering momentum in the second quarter, though inflation would continue to average above the central bank's comfort zone of 6 per cent, said an article in the RBI's monthly bulletin released on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation shot up significantly to 7.44 per cent in July, from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to soaring prices of tomato, vegetables and other food items. In his address to the nation on the Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to take more steps to contain price rise.
Snapping its declining trend, retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.55 per cent in November on firming food prices, including vegetables and cereals, though it remains within the RBI's comfort zone of less than 6 per cent. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.87 per cent in October and 5.88 per cent in November 2022, the government data released on Tuesday showed. The previous high was 6.83 per cent in August and inflation had been on a decline since then.
The fall in international oil prices notwithstanding, ONGC Videsh Ltd will not revise its pound 12.50 a share buyout of Imperial Energy Corp Plc as the acquisition priced UK-listed firm's in-place oil reserves at $2.5-3 per barrel.
ONGC Videsh Ltd and its partners Indian Oil Corporation and Oil India Ltd had in 2009 dropped plans to develop the Binaloud oil find in the Farsi offshore block as it found one billion barrels of reserves commercially unviable.
State-owned exploration firm Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has struck huge oil and gas reserves west of its gigantic Bassein gas field.\n\n\n\n
'No analogy is perfect, but a better liquid to liken data to is water, with the global internet like a great borderless ocean of currents and tides,' Facebook's vice-president, global affairs and communications, Nick Clegg, said in New Delhi.
'We plan to add over 100,000 square kilometres every year, to reach an ambitious target of 500,000 square kilometres by 2025.'
The surge in oil prices has also affected the rupee, which hit a 6-week low of 70.25 on Friday against the dollar.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, PowerGrid and Bajaj Finserve gained up to 2.01 per cent. On the other hand, bellwether stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra and Reliance were the laggards. ITC shares closed the session with a loss of 3.87 per cent lower and Reliance ended 1.92 per cent lower.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang, a guerilla outfit headed by its self-styled chairman S S Khaplang, has dictated the Indian and foreign oil companies engaged in oil extraction and fresh exploration work on the soil of Nagaland, "to stop all activities forthwith or face the consequences."
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The fields have reserves of about 89 million tonnes
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Given that India will get a huge part of its oil supplies from Iran through its government-owned oil PSUs, any unwelcome shocks in global crude rates could be absorbed well enough.
Worried about the possibility of oil prices' pushing up inflation, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday said chances of prices going up in the coming days need to be viewed against this background.
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
The Fed's interpretation of the increase in gas prices is the economist's basic mantra of supply and demand.
Capital expenditure (capex) by 54 large central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) and five departmental arms with an annual capex target of Rs 100 crore and above has reached around 42.5 per cent of their annual target of about Rs 7.33 trillion in this financial year so far, a senior official from the Ministry of Finance told Business Standard. "The Centre is pushing the big public undertakings in the infrastructure and refinery sector to achieve 90 per cent of their target by the end of the third quarter," he said. The capex by this group of CPSEs stands at around Rs 3.1 trillion in the April-August period so far.
From the Sensex pack, Nestle, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Axis Bank were the major gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Dudley, whose company last year made the largest foreign direct investment in the oil sector, followed it up with a meeting with Finance Minister P Chidambaram.
Scottish explorer Cairn Energy has struck an estimated 20 million tonnes of oil and gas reserves in Rajasthan.
'All but one of the previous oil shocks brought either a change of government or a political crisis.' 'Is the government braced for stormy weather?' asks T N Ninan.
The fall in reserves was due to a sharp fall in foreign currency assets.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday opened a special window for cash-strapped state-owned oil firms to buy foreign exchange at market rates to provide them with more liquidity and manage exchange rates at the same time. As part of a two-pronged strategy to minimise the "potential adverse consequences for financial markets" due to the escalation in global crude prices, RBI also decided to conduct open market operations for oil bonds in the secondary market.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
While sources in Iran confirmed the dispute, officials of the central banks of both countries are set to meet on Friday.
The government should scrap the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil as the levy is adversely impacting the capex-intensive exploration of oil and gas, the industry said in its recommendation for the forthcoming annual Budget. India first imposed windfall profit taxes on July 1, joining a growing number of nations that tax super normal profits of energy companies. At that time, a Rs 23,250 per tonne ($40 per barrel) windfall profit tax on domestic crude production was levied.
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